From Farm to Fork to Front Desk: Study Finds Immigrant Labor Powers America’s “Everyday Economy”
A new study from The Mendoza Law Firm on immigrant workforce reliance warns that some of the most routine parts of American life, food production, delivery logistics, and hospitality services, depend heavily on immigrant labor, and may face sharper disruptions as the U.S. immigrant population declines.
Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data indicates the U.S. foreign-born population hit a record 53.3 million in January 2025, then declined to about 51.9 million by June 2025, marking the first sustained drop since the 1960s. The same reporting notes the decline likely continued due to fewer arrivals alongside deportations and voluntary departures.
That shift is especially consequential because immigrants are disproportionately represented in the industries that keep daily consumer life functioning—often in jobs that are physically demanding, schedule-intensive, and essential to supply chains.
“Immigrant labor isn’t a niche workforce,” said a spokesperson with the firm. “It’s how meals get harvested and served, how goods move, and how communities stay operational during peak seasons.”
Key dependence: agriculture, hospitality, and transportation
The study highlights three sectors where immigrant labor is particularly concentrated:
- Agriculture and food production
Immigrant workers make up a significant share of agricultural labor, including physically demanding, seasonal work that is difficult to replace at scale. Disruptions here can create downstream effects: fewer workers can mean lower output, greater spoilage risk, and increased pressure on food prices. - Leisure and hospitality
Hotels, restaurants, and tourism economies rely on immigrant labor across food service, cleaning, maintenance, and guest services. When labor supply tightens, businesses often reduce hours, limit bookings, or raise prices—changes that consumers feel immediately. - Transportation and utilities
The study underscores immigrants’ presence in transportation and logistics roles that keep supply chains moving. When capacity drops, deliveries slow, warehousing costs rise, and essential services feel strain.
The U.S. labor force has been increasingly immigration-driven
The broader labor market context makes these sector risks more acute. NFAP analysis has found immigrants accounted for 88% of U.S. labor force growth since 2019 in their recent review. Over longer horizons, NFAP has similarly emphasized the outsized role of immigrants and their children in labor force growth.
In practical terms: when immigration slows or reverses, the economy doesn’t just “rebalance.” Certain industries feel it first—especially those already struggling to recruit and retain workers.
Recent evidence links immigration declines to slower job growth
The labor impact is increasingly visible in economic tracking. Reporting on a San Francisco Federal Reserve analysis noted that declines in unauthorized immigration were tied to slower job growth, especially in construction and manufacturing, with broader implications for sectors dependent on workforce availability. While the sectors differ, the mechanism is shared: fewer available workers constrains output.
Wage gaps and job structure add complexity
The study also emphasizes a persistent earnings disparity between foreign-born and native-born workers. Across many labor categories, immigrants can earn less on average, reflecting a mix of occupational clustering, credential barriers, and limited mobility. This wage reality can lead to a fragile labor equilibrium: industries rely on immigrants, but those workers may face constraints that limit long-term stability—especially when enforcement pressure rises or job conditions deteriorate.
What consumers may notice first
If labor disruptions deepen, the earliest effects are likely to be “everyday inconveniences” that quietly add up:
- Restaurant and hotel staffing gaps, longer waits, reduced availability
- Higher food costs, especially for labor-intensive crops and products
- Delivery delays, scheduling volatility, and increased logistics fees
- Seasonal shortages, especially in tourism-heavy regions
“These aren’t abstract economic models.” “They show up as empty shifts, slower service, and rising costs, things households feel even if they never read a labor report.”
A planning moment, not a panic moment
The study calls for practical workforce planning that reflects the real structure of the U.S. labor market: investments in training pipelines, smarter workforce matching, predictable legal pathways that support essential labor needs, and industry standards that improve retention and reduce churn.
The goal, researchers stress, isn’t rhetoric. It’s reliability, so the systems people depend on every day don’t become increasingly brittle.
