Understanding Soccer Odds Through Market Analysis

As sports prediction analysis becomes more precise, putting your stake in gut feelings or even basic stats isn’t the type of risk you want to take. Combining your own research with data-driven platforms and calculations allows you to leverage market insights for a significant edge. 

Learn how money moves through markets, and the data behind the odds, to think more like an analyst. 

How to Find Your Total Return and Net Profit 

When analyzing soccer leagues, like the Eredivisie in the Netherlands, winning odds may be presented as decimals or percentages. Use this simple formula to find your total return: 

Total Return = (Stake) x (Odds)

If you staked $1.00 on 2.50 odds, your total return would be $2.50. However, if you want to find your net profit, you would subtract your $1.00 stake from your $2.50 return, giving you a $1.50 net profit.   

You can also research platforms to view winning odds on upcoming games, analyze Eredivisie predictions, and calculate total returns. These platforms aggregate data from multiple prediction markets for a more precise consensus.   

How to Find Implied Probability

If you want to find the implied probability of an outcome, you’ll need to convert the decimal odds into a percentage. Percentages offer a clearer visual of winning odds. You can do this with the following formula: 

(1÷Decimal Odds)×100

Therefore, a soccer club priced at 1.90 has 52.6% chance of winning, according to prediction markets. 

But you also have to account for the bookmaker’s margin, which is called the overround or Vig. It’s like a hidden fee built into the odds to ensure profit for the bookmaker, regardless of the outcome.

How to Conduct Market Depth Analysis

Market depth analysis looks at the total volume of money (liquidity) and the number of wagers (bets) waiting to be matched in a market. It helps you see where the most strategic money is being directed. 

If there’s a “deep market,” this means there’s a high volume of bets waiting to be matched at varying price points. An example of a deep market is a major sporting event, such as the FIFA World Cup Final. 

The next data point is the order book. 

It lists the highest prices buyers are inclined to pay, and the lowest prices sellers (bookmakers) are willing to accept. The back side of the order book shows the accumulated liquidity waiting to move, while the lay side of the book represents the available bookmaker liquidity.    

How to Gauge Price Credibility

First, examine the price spread, which is the gap between the best back and lay price in the order book. A tight gap signals higher credibility, since there’s high liquidity and a consensus on the price. But a wide gap indicates price uncertainty. 

Study the Markets

Smart risks are supported by smart data. 

Improve your strategy by finding your total return, net profit, and implied probability. Research platforms that aggregate prediction market data from multiple sources. Conduct market depth analysis and measure price credibility by analyzing the spread.  

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