Freight Volatility Is Changing How Businesses Choose International Logistics Services

For years, many small and midsize importers picked a freight partner the simple way. They compared quotes, chose the lowest one that looked reliable, and moved on. That habit is getting harder to defend, and the reasons now shaping how companies buy international logistics services have more to do with risk than with price per container.

Shipping lanes have been rerouted, freight rates have swung hard in both directions, and U.S. tariff policy went through a major legal reversal in 2026. None of that shows up on a rate sheet. But it shows up on the invoice, sometimes months later.

Shipping Costs Have Stopped Behaving Predictably

The clearest view of the past two years comes from the United Nations. In its latest review of global maritime transport, UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said shipping carries over 80% of world merchandise trade and warned of fragile growth, rising costs and mounting uncertainty. Seaborne trade volumes were expected to barely rise in 2025, by about 0.5%.

UNCTAD also reported that rerouting driven by geopolitical tensions pushed ton-miles up nearly 6% in 2024, a record. Ships sailing longer routes tie up capacity, and ports absorbing rerouted traffic have dealt with congestion and longer waiting times.

The agency described freight rates as more volatile and pointed to new U.S. tariffs and port fees on certain foreign-built or foreign-operated vessels as factors that may further affect costs and routes. For a business shipping a few containers a month, that kind of swing can wipe out the margin on a product line.

Why the Buying Criteria Are Shifting

When rates were steadier, the quote was most of the decision. Now the bigger questions sit around it: who carries the risk if a vessel is delayed, who pays when goods wait at a port, and how fast someone notices a problem.

More companies now judge freight partners on coverage across the whole chain rather than on a single mode. Providers offering a combination of international logistics services, such as ocean, air and road freight with warehousing and customs brokerage, may give shippers more options when routes change or delays arise. Whether a shipment can be moved to another mode depends on the cargo, available capacity, cost and the terms of the logistics arrangement. This broader range of services also gives importers more factors to consider when evaluating how a provider responds to disruptions, not just what it charges when everything goes according to plan.

A lot of the risk question is settled in the sales contract before any freight is booked. The eleven standard trade terms known as Incoterms, maintained by the International Chamber of Commerce, spell out the tasks, costs and risks involved in delivering goods from seller to buyer. The current set, Incoterms 2020, took effect on January 1, 2020. Picking the wrong term can leave a buyer responsible for a leg of the trip it never priced in.

Visibility has become part of the same conversation. Many shippers now expect real-time tracking of where a shipment sits, partly because a two-day warning about a delay is worth more than an apology after the fact.

The Tariff Ruling Added Another Layer

Then there’s the customs side, which got more complicated this year.

On February 20, 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not authorize the president to impose tariffs. IEEPA-based duties stopped being collected on February 24. Tariffs imposed under other authorities, such as Section 232 and Section 301, were not affected by the decision.

The ruling set in motion a separate process for addressing refunds of previously collected duties, and refunds are not automatic. U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) developed CAPE, within its Automated Commercial Environment (ACE), to process eligible IEEPA duty refund claims. Importers of record and authorized customs brokers that filed the relevant entries can submit CAPE Declarations through the ACE Portal. Refunds are subject to CBP’s eligibility and processing requirements, and importers should check the latest agency guidance before filing.

For some businesses, the refund process was a reminder of how much rides on accurate entry records. Importers with organized customs entry records may find it easier to identify eligible transactions and prepare the documentation needed for a refund claim. Those with incomplete records may need to reconstruct parts of their import history first.

Questions Worth Asking Before Signing a Logistics Contract

No single checklist fits every importer. Still, a few questions tend to come up among businesses that have been burned by a bad season:

Which modes are covered? Ocean only, or air and road too, so cargo can be shifted if a lane backs up.
Who handles customs? In-house brokerage versus a third party affects how quickly entry problems get fixed.
What does the contract say about delays? Look for how storage, detention and demurrage charges are handled.
How is tracking provided? A portal with live status, or emails on request.
Can the provider support duty programs? Some importers use duty drawback or foreign trade zones, which require careful records.
Which Incoterms do the sales contracts use? The freight arrangement should match who bears the risk.

The answers rarely make one provider perfect. They do show where the gaps are, and gaps are what tend to get expensive.

What This Means for Smaller Importers

Large retailers have procurement teams and trade counsel to work through all of this. Smaller companies usually don’t. For them, the logistics provider often ends up acting as the closest thing to an in-house trade department, whether anyone planned it that way or not.

So the decision deserves more time than it used to get, along with harder questions up front and answers in writing. A slightly higher quote from a partner with broader coverage, clear contract terms and solid customs support can, in some cases, cost less over a year than the cheapest rate on paper, especially when routes, rates and rules keep moving.

Although freight markets may eventually stabilize, importers have good reason to account for continued uncertainty in their logistics planning.