New Holiday Travel Data Points to High‑Risk Patterns Ahead of Presidents Day and Spring Break

With Presidents Day weekend and spring break approaching, new national crash data shows that early‑year travel may be more dangerous than many Americans expect. A recent analysis by The Millar Law Firm highlights the holidays, time windows, and road corridors that consistently see the sharpest increases in crashes and fatalities. The findings offer a detailed look at how travel behavior, weather, and congestion combine to create elevated risks during the first major travel periods of the year.

Nationally, the United States continues to see more than 6 million crashes annually, according to federal transportation data. Fatalities remain high as well, with more than 40,000 deaths recorded each year. While Thanksgiving and Christmas dominate public attention, the data shows that several warm‑weather holidays produce even higher fatality counts. Over a recent multi‑year period, Labor Day recorded 2,521 fatalities, the highest of any holiday. Thanksgiving followed with 2,487, and Memorial Day recorded 2,334. These numbers reflect the combined impact of long‑distance travel, alcohol‑related crashes, and heavy evening traffic.

The Millar Law Firm’s analysis identifies the specific days surrounding major holidays that consistently produce the highest crash totals. The Wednesday before Thanksgiving remains one of the deadliest travel days of the year, with more than 800 fatalities nationwide. The Sunday after Thanksgiving follows closely with more than 700 fatalities, driven by concentrated return‑travel congestion. These patterns are expected to repeat during Presidents Day weekend and spring break, when millions of Americans travel over short, compressed windows.

Congestion modeling from transportation agencies shows that travel delays can increase dramatically during these peak periods. In major metro regions, holiday travel times can more than double. For example, Washington, D.C. to Baltimore travel has historically seen delays increase by more than 160 percent during peak holiday windows. New York to the Hamptons can experience travel times that rise by over 120 percent, while Los Angeles to Palm Springs often sees delays of more than 80 percent. These congestion spikes are most severe during the late afternoon and early evening, particularly between 3 p.m. and 6 p.m., when many travelers begin their trips immediately after work or school.

The national data also identifies the roadways that have historically recorded the highest fatality counts during holiday periods. Corridors such as I‑15 in San Bernardino County, California, SR‑85 in Okaloosa County, Florida, and I‑5 and I‑605 in Los Angeles County each recorded ten or more fatalities during the Thanksgiving period across several years. These high‑risk corridors share common characteristics: heavy long‑distance travel, high speeds, and limited alternative routes.

While the national picture reveals broad patterns, state‑level data shows significant variation. States such as Montana, Mississippi, and Wyoming recorded the highest holiday fatality rates per 100,000 residents, reflecting long rural stretches, limited lighting, and higher average speeds. States with dense urban infrastructure, including Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and New York, recorded the lowest fatality rates.

Georgia’s data, included in The Millar Law Firm’s analysis, illustrates how state‑specific patterns can diverge from national trends. In 2023, Georgia recorded 375,000 crashes, including 1,797 fatalities and 147,000 injuries. Surprisingly, holidays that receive less national attention produced the highest crash totals in the state. Veterans Day recorded 1,398 crashes, the most of any holiday period in Georgia. Memorial Day followed with 1,350 crashes, and Columbus Day recorded 1,314. Thanksgiving weekend, despite being one of the busiest travel periods nationwide, recorded only 1,033 crashes in Georgia, placing it among the lowest statewide totals.

These findings underscore the importance of understanding both national and regional travel behavior. While national fatality spikes often align with major holidays, state‑level crash patterns can be shaped by school calendars, weather conditions, and regional travel habits. For example, February remains one of the wettest months in many southern states, and rain contributes to nearly 20 percent of all crashes in regions like Georgia, Alabama, and the Carolinas. In northern states, early‑year travel risks are often tied to snow, ice, and reduced visibility.

As Presidents Day weekend and spring break approach, the data offers clear guidance for travelers across the country. Drivers should avoid peak departure windows, plan around the 3 p.m. to 6 p.m. crash surge, and anticipate heavy congestion on major interstates leading out of major metro areas. The Millar Law Firm’s findings emphasize that understanding these national and regional patterns is one of the most effective ways to reduce preventable crashes and keep families safer during the first major travel periods of the year.