Rasyad Wiratma Analysis on Current Silver Price Trends
Rasyad Wiratma believes that the silver market has entered one of the most volatile periods in recent memory, marked by sharp reversals, record swings, and intense speculation. After a historic rally that saw prices surge past triple-digit levels, silver has experienced a dramatic sell-off, raising important questions about the sustainability of the rally and the drivers shaping the current trend.
Recent Market Behavior and Extreme Volatility
Silver prices have displayed significant turbulence in early 2026. After breaking past historic levels—reaching over $121 per ounce earlier in the year—silver experienced a powerful pullback, dropping to around $78–$80 per ounce on recent trading sessions. This marked one of the largest single-day declines on record for silver, triggered in part by profit-taking and a broad sell-off across precious metals markets.
One of the immediate catalysts for this drop is the changing macroeconomic backdrop. The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve chair signaled continued confidence in the U.S. central bank’s independence and a potential shift toward tighter monetary policy expectations. This strengthened the U.S. dollar, making dollar-priced commodities like silver less attractive to global investors, and contributed to significant selling pressure.
Technical Levels and Market Structure
From a technical perspective, silver appears to have lost key support levels during the sell-off. Prices have tested the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), and breaking below this trendline has opened the door to further downside risk. However, markets that move sharply in one direction often consolidate or retrace as value buyers and institutional players step in, creating the potential for sideways action before any stronger directional move.
The silver futures market remains highly sensitive, with breakpoints such as $70–$77 per ounce representing crucial support zones. If prices stabilize above these levels, short-term technical rebounds could materialize as traders reposition themselves. Conversely, failure to hold these support levels may extend the downward phase.
Supply, Demand, and Structural Drivers
Beyond near-term technical dynamics, Rasyad Wiratma highlights that structural factors still play a role. Long before the recent swings, silver prices had been supported by strong industrial demand and recurring supply deficits. Silver has a dual nature—as both a precious metal and an industrial commodity—meaning shifts in demand from sectors such as electronics, solar energy, and EV production continue to underpin long-term fundamentals.
Despite the sharp sell-off, silver remains significantly elevated compared to its levels a year ago—still up more than 150 % year-on-year according to broader market data.
Diverging Analyst Views: Short-Term Bearish vs Long-Term Bullish
Analyst opinions on silver’s future trajectory diverge sharply. On the bearish side, some experts have pointed to silver’s explosive recent gains and elevated margin requirements as signs of an overheated market vulnerable to correction. Former quant analysts have even suggested the potential for deeper price declines if speculative rallies unwind further.
However, longer-term forecasts paint a more bullish picture under certain scenarios. Some analysts argue that if broader macro conditions—such as inflation, central bank policy shifts, and structural supply constraints—remain supportive, silver could regain momentum later in the year and beyond. Forecast models have even projected wide ranges in potential outcomes, with some price forecasts calling for significantly higher levels by year-end 2026.
This divergence underscores that silver’s trajectory may be driven by broader macro trends rather than a single dominant factor.
Macroeconomic Influences and Safe-Haven Behavior
Precious metals often reflect investor sentiment toward macroeconomic risk. Historically, gold and silver rallies coincide with elevated geopolitical uncertainty, inflation fears, or expectations of monetary policy easing. Earlier in the year, rising geopolitical tensions and fear of inflation drove strong inflows into both gold and silver, contributing to the earlier upswing.
In the current climate, however, improved risk sentiment—spurred in part by easing geopolitical concerns and expectations of a resilient economy—has reduced safe-haven demand, prompting some investors to unwind positions in silver and other metals.
Demand, Liquidity, and Participation
Liquidity patterns have also played a significant role. Silver markets are generally smaller and less liquid than gold markets, amplifying price moves when large positions shift and speculative traders adjust their exposure. During periods of rapid price movement, forced liquidations or margin calls can exacerbate volatility and lead to outsized swings in price.
Strategic Implications for Traders and Investors
Rasyad Wiratma advises market participants to approach silver trading with heightened attention to risk management and macro signals. In an environment marked by wide trading ranges and rapid sentiment shifts, the following considerations are key:
- Monitor key support and resistance levels: Short-term price action will likely remain range-bound unless volatility subsides and trendlines re-establish.
- Watch macroeconomic indicators: Dollar strength, Fed policy signals, and global demand dynamics will continue to influence investor positioning.
- Diversify exposures: Given silver’s volatility and dual demand sources (investment and industrial), balanced portfolios can help mitigate directional risks.
Looking Ahead
While the recent correction has been steep, the silver market still reflects significant interest from both speculative and industrial participants. Whether prices stabilize or continue to fluctuate, Rasyad Wiratma believes that deep understanding of technical levels, macroeconomic drivers, and broader market risk sentiment will be essential for navigating the next phase of silver’s trajectory.
As markets absorb ongoing economic data and policy signals, silver’s price may find a base in the near term. If macro risks surface again—such as renewed inflationary pressure or renewed safe-haven demand—the metal’s appeal could re-strengthen. Conversely, a stronger dollar and firm monetary policy expectations may keep a lid on prices until sentiment shifts meaningfully.
In either scenario, Rasyad Wiratma emphasizes the importance of disciplined analysis and attention to evolving market drivers in forming any strategic outlook on silver.
