Super Bowl LX Preview: Expectations, Predictions, and Value Bets
Super Bowl LX is the culmination of a season with exceptional storylines and twists. Some outcomes and performances were up to previous and established standards, while other events turned into fascinating material.
The road to the showdown in Santa Clara was paved with the perceived crumbling of the Kansas City dynasty, historical dysfunction from the usual suspects, and the return of some familiar patterns.
Seattle has a suffocating defense, and New England is back to navigating the AFC playoffs and outlasting everyone in their conference. Mike Vrabel is a familiar face who was part of the previous iteration, while Mike Macdonald spearheads the new generation of coaches.
It’s been a hectic season, one that has led to nearly a third of the league changing head coaches, including the end of long-tenured regimes in Baltimore and Pittsburgh. We are already feeling the turnover before the game in Levi’s Stadium even kicked off.
Interestingly enough, the ramifications of this Super Bowl have sent shockwaves into how front offices and regimes think. The success of these teams means more than the game itself, not to mention who will lift the Lombardi.
In this article, we’ll give you a preview of the big dance. We’ll discuss a bit of context, what the bookmakers tell us with their prices, and which bets may present the most interesting opportunities. Let’s see what the number can conjure!
The context makes the match-up even more interesting
Many of us probably remember Super Bowl XLIX, also known as the Super Bowl when Seattle should’ve let Beast Mode run the ball. He laughed in Pete Carroll’s face, Richard Sherman threw the grimace of the century, and the Patriots won the big game after Malcolm Butler had his famous pick.
The Legion of Boom hung around until it started dissipating, but never returned to the Super Bowl. The Patriots continued their march toward being the premier dynasty of this century, stunning Atlanta in Super Bowl LI, losing to Nick Foles the following year, and then beating McVay’s Rams in a snoozefest.
The match-up itself carries great pop culture significance, but neither team is the franchise of yesteryear. They’re both callbacks of previous iterations. However, as the Seahawks and Patriots have moved, in earnest, into the 2020s, they operate on a similar principle: structure under the guise of accountability.
The State of 2025
Macdonald’s Seattle had a few growing pains here and there. They missed the playoffs in 2024 after a foundational, occasionally frustrating season. Geno Smith was relatively solid, but Ryan Grubb was clearly not the answer at OC.
The defense, which was coming along in the current meta of NFL defensive schemes, had yet to prove itself. Macdonald recruited Klint Kubiak, fresh off an off-the-rails Saints season, and signed Sam Darnold, who was in the middle of a narrative-changing career. The defense settled into its structure, and the O soared.
The Patriots did what they were probably supposed to do a year earlier, with all due respect to Jerrod Mayo. They had their quarterback, albeit the structure around him was clearly underwhelming. They needed someone who would install the proper structure. Enter Mike Vrabel, whose acrimonious departure from Tennessee proved a mistake of epic proportions, one that the Titans still feel to this day.
He came in, brought the toughness that defined him as a player, but reinvigorated a system based on real team values, identity, and a tight-knit structure. This is not the Patriot way as we know it, but an updated version. One that had moved beyond the Belichick-Kraft-Brady triumvirate.
Both teams finished their season at 14-3. The Seahawks rose above a hyper-competitive division and conference, while the Patriots navigated and survived a conference in the middle of a transition. The poles of power were moving in the AFC, and the Patriots proved the most complete and dangerous team, all things considered (schedule, playoff match-ups, etc.).
The moneyline, spread, and totals predict trench warfare
One of the most well-known reflexes in today’s sports world is to consult Vegas. The books have their way of knowing what’s going on before the public knows it. They also have immense access to valuable data.
Speaking of the books, betonvalue odds analysis gave both the Patriots and Seahawks as very long shots to win the Lombardi before the season. Seattle was as low as +6,000 while New England was +8,000. Both perspectives were perfectly reasonable. The Patriots were clawing their way out of dysfunction, needed plenty of roster work, and were in a conference that certainly seemed more competitive given recent history.
Despite perceived differences in talent and form, not to mention playoff performances and health, Vegas gives them much closer than one would suggest. The moneyline gives Seattle as the favorite, but only at -225. The spread is much more interesting, with only a -4.5 difference. The over/under for total points is 45.5, suggesting a tightly contested game of defense.
Why would it be so? Mike Vrabel recently said, in a very player-turned-coach reality check, that everybody on this team is, in some way, injured. The answer came after a question regarding Drake Maye’s reported (and improving) shoulder injury. This comes even in the wake of Sam Darnold’s oblique ailment that didn’t stop him from locking in and air-raiding a (weak) Los Angeles secondary in the NFCCG.
Are there signs in the data?
Let’s consult some of it.
Per TruMedia, one of the most quoted and reliable data services around NFL football, regular-season performance was equitable among these two. The Patriots had 0.27 EPA per Dropback, while Seattle was at 0.07. The success rate was also superior for NE, with 48.6%, compared to 45.9% scored by their opponent.
The Patriots, despite allowing 48 sacks (21 more than the Seahawks), had significantly fewer turnovers with only 16. They also have better third-down and red zone conversion percentages. As for offensive penalties, Seattle had 100, while the Patriots had 99. Discipline and structure meet eye to eye.
Defense, the ideological calling card for both teams (albeit Macdonald calls the plays, while Terrell Williams operates New England’s), was particularly tight. Seattle scored 47 sacks, while the Patriots had 35.
Takeaways were another of Seattle’s strengths, with 25, while the Patriots, headlined by Christian Gonzalez, had 19. Defensive EPA per Play was 0.12 for the Seahawks, double the amount compared to the Patriots. Defensive Success Rate was another advantage for the Seahawks, with a 58.6% rate, considerably higher than the Patriots’ 52.2%.
These numbers, all courtesy of TruMedia, give us a look into why the match-up is such a balanced game. In theory, we look at defensive and offensive playoff performances, and we might think that New England might be in danger of a blowout. However, we know that both the structure and grit are there, within the Patriots, not to mention the possibility of game-breaking moments. It is the Super Bowl.
Interesting bets to consider given the personnel
There are various obvious choices and Wild Cards. If we’re to speak about the Super Bowl MVP, the best odds are for the quarterbacks, as it’s customary. Darnold is at +115 when writing this article, 5 days before the game. Drake Maye trails him at +230, followed by Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Kenneth Walker III, the standout skill players.
When looking at these odds, there are a few interesting picks that would make sense as dark horses. TreVeyon Henderson, who partnered with Rhamondre Stevenson in New England’s rushing attack, merely has +12,000 odds to win MVP, the same as Devon Witherspoon, the talismanic DB for Seattle.
Henderson has game-breaking speed, and a couple of runs could pad the stat sheet and make the difference. Witherspoon can always tap into his ability and pick off Drake Maye. A combination of PBUs and INTs can make a difference.
Markets worth a look
There are other interesting props. The special teams TD line is at +210, which says a lot about Seattle’s return game, powered by Rasheed Shaheed. Another is that each of Darnold and Maye will complete over 25 passes, with a +2,000 moneyline. The game, as established, is thought of as a defensive onslaught.
Darnold threw the rock 36 times and completed 25 of them in the NFCCG versus the Rams. This is unlikely against a dangerous New England secondary. On the other hand, Drake Maye only completed 10 of his 21 passes against another strong defense in Denver, and Seattle’s coverage unit is one of the best in terms of collective, coaching, and talent.
It’s an interesting prop to consider in case the game turns into a track meet. In this spirit, the line for any QB to throw a pick is at +1,300. Darnlord is a bit trigger-happy at times, compared to a more efficient but still occasionally volatile Maye, and the defensive personnel would probably validate this prop.
If one were looking to build a small parlay based on sacks, the books have DeMarcus Lawrence (+122), Leonard Williams (+144), and Byron Murphy II (+172) to score a sack. A combination of any 2 of them would not be surprising, and even all 3 would be a daring, albeit not unrealistic, prop. New England’s LT Will Campbell has had a rough playoff performance, Morgan Moses is old enough to have concerns, and Jarred Wilson is still a rookie himself.
On offense, Steffon Diggs has +440 odds to score a 30+ yard touchdown. He has shorter odds than Cooper Kupp, who is at +430. Both players are seasoned vets and very dangerous, especially with a quarterback capable of explosive throws. JSN and Kayshon Boutte have better odds on this prop, but each secondary unit may target them to take them away from their respective quarterbacks.
Editor’s perspective on the game: an underrated Super Bowl in the making?
We have been somewhat spoiled by the recent history of the Super Bowl. Last year, we had an absolute beatdown that felt gratifying to many and validated a great season by both the offensive and defensive units. Before that, we had tight contested match-ups with the Chiefs emerging as the winners following injury-time victories. The Rams beat the Bengals in a game that was surprisingly tight for many, but a memorable one at that.
This game may be a break to that notion. As we’ve seen over the last few years, defense returned to being the meta of the league. Bright minds have been installing tight systems that are less about a Fangioesque scheme and focused more on teaching the system. Offensive minds have been hybridizing their solutions in an effort to exploit mismatches and break the rules of these defensive systems.
Kubiak has proven very adept at finding solutions, while the Rams have had the number of Macdonald’s defense, but not enough to break the game apart. Drake Maye, who had a similarly great season as Stafford, had a poor playoff performance. He needs to return to his previous prowess, and Josh McDaniels needs to get in his bag again. He’s seen enough Super Bowl football.
It’s hard to make a pick. This game feels like trench warfare that leads to a punt galore, and special teams may be the keystone to the win. However, each offense is capable of breaking the game apart, especially Seattle, given its superior skill position group.
The Patriots are clearly playing with house money this season, but there’s no telling if there will be a similar shot in the near future, especially if the AFC gets its stuff together. They have the makings of scoring an upset, but we’ve seen Seattle trounce an opponent in the playoffs.
Every sign tells us that this is a Seattle win, but the books coming up with such a close spread tells us that the Patriots are not to be underrated. When New England is in the Super Bowl, it’s just hard to bet against them.
