UK households warned of further bill rises as Ofgem prepares October price cap
London, 01 September 2025 – Millions of UK households are set to face higher energy bills this autumn, as Ofgem prepares to confirm its latest update to the energy price cap. The regulator will announce the official figures on 27 August, with changes coming into effect from 1 October.
Industry forecasts suggest the typical annual dual-fuel household bill will rise from £1,720 to around £1,737 – an increase of roughly £17. While this represents only a 1% rise, experts warn the timing will be difficult for families already struggling with higher living costs.
Why bills are going up
According to consultancy Cornwall Insight, the rise is not driven purely by wholesale energy markets. Ofgem’s calculation now incorporates adjustments linked to policy measures, such as the expansion of the Warm Home Discount scheme.
This will add around £15 to an average bill, but at the same time it extends £150 of direct financial support to an additional 2.7 million low-income households. For many families, this provides welcome relief, though the overall impact for typical customers is still an upward movement in bills.
Dr Craig Lowrey, principal consultant at Cornwall Insight, explained:
“Consumers will see a modest rise from October, and although some may benefit from targeted support schemes, for most households this adds to the wider cost of living challenge. The price cap reflects more than just wholesale markets; it also includes policy costs and system balancing charges.”
Energy markets remain volatile
Global conditions are continuing to keep energy prices unpredictable. Wholesale gas and electricity costs remain influenced by international supply issues, trade disputes, and geopolitical risks.
Cornwall Insight has suggested there may be a small reduction in January 2026, but this will depend heavily on demand during the winter, as well as changes in government policy. For now, consumers are advised not to expect sharp decreases.
Why households should act now
Consumer advisors stress that the energy price cap does not mean households are automatically on the cheapest tariff. The cap only sets maximum charges on standard variable deals, which are often the most expensive type of plan.
This is why households are being urged to use trusted tools to carry out an energy price comparison and review their options. By checking the market, customers can identify whether switching to a fixed deal, or moving to a supplier offering more competitive rates, could help limit the impact of the October increase.
Switching to the right tariff not only protects against further rises but can also provide greater predictability in monthly budgeting.
The role of online tools
One of the easiest ways for households to take control of costs is by using an energy bill calculator. This allows customers to input their typical usage and compare how different tariffs will affect their annual bill. With standing charges and unit rates varying widely between suppliers, even small differences can add up to meaningful savings over the course of a year.
By combining calculators with full market comparisons, households can identify the most cost-effective deals tailored to their circumstances.
What the price cap actually covers
The energy price cap, introduced in 2019, sets a limit on the unit rate and standing charge that suppliers can bill customers on default tariffs. However, it does not cap the total amount of an energy bill, which still depends on how much a household uses.
This means that families living in larger properties or less efficient homes will continue to pay more, even under the capped rates.
Preparing for winter
With colder weather ahead, the October increase will place extra pressure on budgets just as households use more gas and electricity for heating and lighting. Advice services recommend reviewing tariffs as soon as possible, rather than waiting until bills rise.
Government support schemes, such as the Warm Home Discount, are expected to help millions of households, but the most effective protection for the majority of consumers remains active comparison and switching when better deals appear.
Key takeaway for households
Although the October price cap increase is modest, it underscores the ongoing uncertainty in UK energy markets. For households looking to protect themselves from further rises, taking a proactive approach is essential.
By comparing tariffs, using online calculators, and keeping up to date with available schemes, consumers can make informed choices. Tools like Free Price Compare allow households to check the market quickly and identify cheaper tariffs that suit their usage patterns.
With energy costs still high compared to pre-crisis levels, even small savings could make a big difference to families navigating the challenges of the winter ahead.
