World Cup 2026 betting guide: How the new 48-team format changes odds, favorites, and underdogs

The 2026 FIFA World Cup will comprise 48 teams, and for the very first time in the history of the event, a round of 32. The global betting scenario enters uncharted territories, with the addition of more matches, more qualifying rounds and an extra knockout round. Odds makers and bettors are faced with more uncertainties, but on the bright side, the new setup opens up new opportunities.

Although the top of the futures board continues to be controlled by the usual power brokers, newer teams are having a genuine impact on odds, projections and tournament modelling.

Outright favorites: a closer race at the top

Currently, Spain is near the top of most outright winner markets, followed closely by England, France and Brazil. The clustering of elite teams is important because it compresses value at the top. When favorites are tightly priced together, sportsbooks become more susceptible to anything that could upset their projected paths to the final. Emerging teams can really matter in that sensitivity. While they aren’t expected to win the tournament, the very presence of these teams creates a lot of recalibrating throughout entire sections of the bracket.

The new format has significantly changed the way teams progress. With 12 groups of four and eight third placed sides making the knockout stage, it doesn’t necessarily call for perfection. A disciplined emerging side can afford one conservative draw and still progress. From a betting point of view, this minimizes margin for error for favourites and heightens chances of ugly match-ups in the early knockout rounds.

More knockout games imply more exposure to randomness. An ineffective tactical arrangement, a particular referee decision, or simply one moment of creativity that happens in a match can shake your months of planning. Consistency and depth, which contribute to the price of elite teams, make them marginally more volatile in terms of risk. It provides opportunity to emerging teams which are founded on order and effectiveness.

Underdog influence: teams primed to impact markets without the need to win

Looking at the World Cup 2026 predictions, new teams have two implications on odds. The first is direct value creation in the form of advancement bets. The second is the indirect disruption through the change of group results and bracket projections.

Here African and Asian teams are gaining power. Countries like Morocco, Senegal and Japan are no longer perceived as a threat of novelty. They are well structured, tactically well developed, and not shy of taking pressure. Such teams are able to top or finish second in a group that sportsbooks had initially projected otherwise.

A newcomer doesn’t have to win a knockout to make a difference. By claiming some early points, it can determine who finishes first, who advances as a 3rd place team, and who faces a tournament favourite earlier than anticipated. It is a knock-on effect which forces books to widen pricing on futures and stage specific markets.

Bet on advancement markets instead of outright winners

Outright winner markets are usually the most efficient and least forgiving. The prices of online sportsbooks consider years of historical data and global attention. There, mispricing of emerging teams does not persist long.

They generate value in markets that are segmented. Wagering on “to qualify from the group”, “to reach the round of 16” or “to reach the quarterfinals allows punters to bet on the don emergence of the team structure as opposed to having to go on a miracle run. These markets tend to react more slowly to tactical reality, especially pre-draw.

In the enlarged layout group winner bets can be quite interesting. A debuting side that is not built to win but rather to avoid losing may just surprise expectations in groups where the favourites are under pressure to rotate and manage fitness.

Host effect: North America is a boosting silent profile

The presence of the tournament in the United States, Mexico, and Canada adds a new variable of interaction between the emerging teams. The distance of travel, climate change, and stadium conditions are much worse than conditions experienced during the previous World Cups. Teams that are used to similar conditions or are well equipped with sports science may be able to adjust at a faster rate.

This does not necessarily bring host countries to the title contention, but it does bring their minimum to group play and early knockouts. It further makes it hard to plan conventional powers, especially those whose teams are aging or have little depth in their tournament. In the case of betting models, such contextual effects have the effect of increasing the set of plausible results, which once again favors teams that are priced slightly below the elite.

It is very simple lesson for bettors and analysts. Put less emphasis on who is winning on paper and more emphasis on who can make the tournament uncomfortable. New teams to the fore in the 2026 World Cup won’t win it but will define it and the betting odds already reflect that if you know where to look.