London Planning Outlook 2026: What Authority Inc.’s Borough Data Shows

Anyone trying to gauge how easy it is to get a planning decision in London quickly runs into a problem: the city isn’t one planning market, it’s 33 of them. According to Authority Inc.’s London Borough Planning Certainty Index, the citywide average masks enormous differences between boroughs, and understanding those gaps matters far more than the headline number for anyone actually submitting an application.

Quick Answer

London’s planning certainty score reached 67.1 out of 100 for the 12 months to December 2025, up 3.5 points from a year earlier. That means roughly 67 in every 100 fully observed applications received a favourable decision within 180 days. But that citywide figure hides a wide spread, with top-performing boroughs scoring above 80 and the weakest scoring in the low 40s, so the borough handling a specific application matters more than the London average.

Why the London Average Is the Wrong Number to Anchor On

It’s easy to quote a single citywide statistic and assume it applies evenly across the capital. It doesn’t. When Authority Inc. ranks individual boroughs using the same fixed rule (a favourable decision within 180 days of validation), the results range from Wandsworth’s 83.3 down to Havering’s 41.9. That’s not a small gap. It means an applicant in one borough can face roughly double the timely-approval odds of an applicant in another, even though both fall under the same citywide average.

This matters practically. A developer, landlord or operator assessing a site should treat the borough’s own track record as the relevant benchmark, not the London-wide score. A project that looks straightforward against the citywide 67.1 figure could be entering one of the slower-moving authorities, where timely favourable decisions are closer to a coin flip.

What the Latest Numbers Actually Show

For the 12 months ending December 2025, London’s planning certainty index stood at 67.1, based on 18,360 fully observed applications with 90.3 percent outcome coverage. Of those, 12,316 received a favourable recorded decision within 180 days.

That’s a meaningful improvement. The score has climbed steadily since bottoming out in the late-59 range through 2022 and 2023, rising to 63.6 by December 2024 and then to 67.1 a year later, a 3.5 point annual gain. The longer trend line shows a slow, largely uninterrupted climb from 58.5 in December 2021.

Authority’s own reading is that lower application volumes are the strongest single explanation, since a smaller pool of submissions generally reduces pressure on planning teams and speeds up decisions. Higher planning fees and tighter statutory deadlines likely contributed as well, though neither factor fully accounts for the improvement on its own. For grant-supported residential schemes specifically, there’s also a plausible push effect: the 2021 to 2026 government funding cycle ended in March 2026, which may have encouraged applicants to secure approvals and start on site before that deadline.

Which Boroughs Are Actually Delivering Timely Decisions

Authority only ranks boroughs with at least 100 observed cases and 90 percent outcome coverage, which currently covers 20 of London’s 33 planning authorities. Within that group, the spread is wide enough to change how a project should be assessed before submission.

Wandsworth leads the ranked boroughs

Wandsworth posted the highest score among ranked boroughs at 83.3, based on 744 observed cases with 92.1 percent coverage. That’s nearly double the lowest-ranked borough’s rate.

Southwark and Westminster follow

Southwark scored 77.4 across 557 cases, and Westminster scored 73.1 across a much larger sample of 2,125 cases, reflecting its high volume of central London applications.

Several boroughs sit well below the London average

Croydon and Barking and Dagenham both scored 46.4, Redbridge scored 50.9, Kingston upon Thames scored 51.1, and Havering recorded the lowest ranked score at 41.9.

The practical implication is straightforward. A scheme heading into Wandsworth or Southwark is, on the historical evidence, entering a planning environment where timely favourable decisions have been considerably more common than in boroughs like Havering or Croydon. That doesn’t guarantee any individual outcome, but it’s a meaningfully different starting risk profile.

The Policy Backdrop Is Shifting Again

The recent improvement in planning certainty is running alongside several policy changes that haven’t yet worked their way into the mature 180-day data.

City Hall opened a 13-week statutory consultation on a new Draft London Plan, covering housing, infrastructure, economic development, design and environmental policy. Because borough local plans have to stay in general conformity with the London Plan, this consultation creates a new reference point that could influence both applicant behaviour and borough decision-making well before the final plan is adopted.

Separately, City Hall confirmed that its £11.7 billion affordable housing programme for 2026 to 2036 was significantly overbid, prompting applicants to revise bids around delivery confidence and value for money before final allocations are agreed. That funding decision doesn’t change the planning certainty score directly, but it can affect which consented and proposed schemes remain commercially viable enough to proceed.

There’s also a national dimension. The government announced planning changes intended to fast-track housing near train, tram and Underground stations by giving greater weight to public transport access in decision-making. Given how many London applications involve station-area or mixed-use sites, this could shift where schemes get submitted and how they’re assessed, though its effect on actual decision speed still needs to show up in the data.

What a Favourable Decision Does and Doesn’t Tell You

It’s worth being precise about what this index measures, because it’s easy to over-read a rising score. A favourable planning decision is not the same as a completed building. The index stops at the recorded decision. Financing, section 106 agreements, discharge of conditions, construction and practical completion all sit outside this measurement and need to be tracked separately.

That distinction matters more as the policy backdrop shifts. An approved scheme can still be delayed or redesigned in response to the new London Plan, and a project can clear planning while remaining commercially undeliverable if affordable housing funding doesn’t come through. Rising planning certainty describes the decision-making process getting faster and more predictable. It doesn’t describe how much gets built.

What to Watch Through the Rest of 2026

A few signals are worth tracking for anyone weighing a London planning application in the coming months.

Whether the recent gains hold as newer cohorts complete their full 180-day observation window will be the clearest test, since Authority only publishes a period once enough outcomes are observable. It’s also worth watching whether the Draft London Plan and the national station-area rules start to change which types of schemes get submitted, since a shift in application mix can move the score independently of any change in decision-making speed. And for grant-dependent residential schemes specifically, the transition into the new 2026 to 2036 funding cycle is likely to affect which approved projects actually move to construction.

Frequently Asked Questions

Does a favourable planning decision mean a project will get built?

No. The index only measures the recorded planning decision. Financing, legal agreements, planning conditions, construction and completion are separate steps that need to be assessed independently.

Why do some London boroughs score so much higher than others?

Differences in application mix, local policy priorities, staffing levels and case complexity all contribute. Authority only ranks boroughs with sufficient sample size and outcome coverage, and even within that group the range runs from the low 40s to the low 80s.

Will the new Draft London Plan change borough approval rates?

It’s too early to say. The consultation opened in mid 2026 and borough local plans must remain in general conformity with it once adopted, but its effect on actual decision speed has not yet appeared in a mature 180-day cohort.

Why does the index use a rolling 12-month window instead of monthly figures?

A trailing 12-month cohort prevents one unusually busy or quiet month from skewing the result, which makes both the citywide score and the borough comparisons more stable and easier to compare over time.

Conclusion

London’s planning certainty is genuinely improving at the city level, but that improvement isn’t evenly distributed. For developers, investors and operators, the borough handling a specific application is a far more useful signal than the London average, and the current policy transition, spanning a new London Plan, revised affordable housing funding and national station-area rules, adds a layer of uncertainty that hasn’t yet shown up in the historical data. Treating the citywide score as a planning risk indicator for an individual site is the mistake to avoid.